I have entered a 2023 prediction contest. Twenty-five binary propositions. Each contestant assigns a value from 0 to 100 indicating the percentage chance he or she believes the proposition will turn out to be true.
I don't really understand the scoring system (why not just give people one point for every percentage point they entered on each proposition that resolves true?) but I trust that the guy who's running it knows what he's doing.
In any case, the point of this post is simply to pre-register my predictions along with a bit of rationale, so here goes:
1. European natural gas prices on February 1 will be higher than they were on January 2
50%
No idea how to predict commodity prices, especially in the short term, so for me this becomes an even-odds bet, a coin flip.
2. On or before Valentine’s Day, there will be a Twitter outage lasting at least 3 hours
20%
I probably should have researched how often these outages happen, but this topic was too boring. As a daily user of Twitter for seven years, I don’t remember many outages. Maybe one a year at most? I wonder how the judges will define “outage.”
3. By March 1, Binance will file for bankruptcy
15%
That’s only 7 weeks – too short a time frame.
4. On or before the 2023 Academy Awards, Will Smith’s suspension will be shortened
15%
Too soon for AMPAS to revisit this. He’s got to be banned from at least one ceremony, and be forced to endure a round of “one year later” stories, in order for the punishment to have any deterrent effect.
5. By April 1, Apple will remove TikTok from its app store
15%
We already know China has access to TikTok data. It would take a surprising new revelation from China to move the needle here – unlikely.
6. At least 6 players will finish the NBA regular season averaging 30+ points per game
5%
I did research this one and found that in recent years, typically three players or fewer average 30+ PPG over the course of an entire season.
7. By May 1, OpenAI will be acquired or sell shares at a company valuation over $30 billion
35%
The valuation is in the right ballpark, but I have heard of no indication that there will be an ownership transaction soon. But, I didn’t look into this at all.
8. Before Mother’s Day (US), Meghan Markle will publish a book of memoirs
3%
There was one super-duper thinly sourced story saying Markle is working on a memoir. No contract announced; a book like this is typically officially announced at least six months before publication date.
9. During or before its Q1 earnings report, Walmart will announce plans to permanently close at least 10 retail stores due to retail theft
10%
This theft storyline was pushed heavily by the GOP in the run-up to the midterms. Since then it has been harder to find. Recently a Walgreens exec admitted that the threat was overhyped. There are much less expensive ways to deal with theft than closing stores.
10. Erling Haaland will score at least 40 Premier League goals in the current season
50%
Halfway through the season Haaland has 21 goals, so he’s on pace at the moment. But the existing record is only 34 goals. Risks to Haaland for the second half of the season include injury, fatigue, and defenses learning how to stop him. I probably should have assigned a lower percentage than 50%.
11. Between February 15 and June 15, the Nasdaq Composite will outperform the Dow Jones Industrial Average *
50%
These short-run binary market predictions will always just be a coin flip to me.
12. The Supreme Court will rule that Harvard is prohibited from considering race as a factor in student admissions
85%
Of the six conservative judges, you need two to “cross the aisle” – presumably Roberts and Kavanagh, just like with Roe / Dobbs. If it didn’t happen then, it’s not gonna happen now. Probably should have guessed 95%.
13. Before Canada Day, Canada will amend its “medical assistance in dying” law to reduce its availability
50%
Too boring to research → coin flip.
14. Before the Dalai Lama’s birthday, border skirmishes between China and India will, per credible reports, result in at least 100 deaths
30%
Possible; not likely. By mutual agreement, China’s and India’s armies currently fight with wooden poles.
15. Neuralink will start live-human trials by August 1
50%
Too complex and arcane (to me) to research → coin flip.
16. By August 15, Disney will announce plans to spin off ESPN and/or Hulu
40%
Don’t know any of the background here except that Disney fired their CEO and brought back his predecessor who will want to make a mark quickly. But how? Both of these properties do seem like they could fetch a good price. This is basically a coin flip with a specificity discount.
17. Novak Djokovic will finish the 2023 season with sole possession of the men’s grand slam victory record
15%
Researched this one. He’s one behind Nadal with four tournaments to go. Seems like a tall order.
18. On Rosh Hashanah, US Rep. George Santos will still be serving in Congress
65%
If he hasn’t resigned so far, what’s going to push him out in a week or a month or more? Speaker Kev has his back for the moment.
19. There will be a coup or regime change in Russia before summer is over
10%
I assume the Ukraine war will settle into a stalemate in 2023. Russians can endure futility for a long time; it’s like a sport over there.
20. Between December 2022 and September 2023, there will be a net increase of at least 10 nuclear power plants in operation worldwide
50%
I spent quite a bit of time researching this and concluded that between China, India, and several other countries, 10 was a very well-chosen over-under number and so took the coin flip.
21. Sam Bankman-Fried will agree to a plea deal with the US before October 3
20%
This guy is very odd and I think he will want a chance to explain himself.
22. Pope Francis will continue to reign at least through the Synod on Synodality, which ends on Oct. 29
90%
He has a bad knee; he’s not on death’s door. And Benedict notwithstanding, resigning isn’t really a thing. God decides when the papacy ends! Ninety-percent chance was probably too conservative.
23. Per prediction markets one year before the 2024 presidential election (Nov. 5), both Joe Biden and Donald Trump will be leading the race for their party’s nomination
20%
It’s gonna be Biden and DeSantis in the lead on Nov. 5. DeSantis has all sorts of stuff he can do as governor between now and then to keep his name in the headlines. And the Trump flags in my county have all been put away for months.
24. Before Thanksgiving, the FDA will suspend or withdraw approval of a GLP-1 receptor agonist for weight loss (such as Mounjaro, Wegovy or Ozempic)
50%
I have no earthly idea what these words mean and had no idea how to investigate this prop, so it’s a coin flip for me.
25. Either India or Pakistan will win the 2023 Cricket World Cup
80%
It's a matter of brute force. These are two massively populous, cricket-mad nations. The other cricket-mad nations are comparatively tiny and in any case aren't all that cricket-mad.
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