Cheney Finally Overruled: Rumsfeld Gone

With Bush's replacement of Rumsfeld with Bob Gates, from the Bush 41 crowd, the 2006 midterm election has turned out to be the equivalent of a presidential election where power changes hands in the executive branch -- at least in terms of Iraq policy. NBC is reporting that Bush finally overruled his vice president in deciding to can Rumsfeld and the neocon approach and bring in a realist. Had Kerry been elected in 2004, I don't think he would have been able to implement a much more important shift in policy.

On MSNBC all the pundits are gushing about how great it is that Bush finally made a decision on his own and told Cheney to take a flying leap. I have to admit I didn't see it in him, and I confess to finding myself impressed by the long-awaited acceptance of reality that Bush displayed in the press conference. I know he'll never admit that the Iraq adventure was a big mistake (sinister oil grab? wacky neocon fantasy?) founded on manipulated intelligence, but the DOD housecleaning is better than nothing. Presumably the neocons won't be on anyone's foreign policy dance card for a long while now, which is also good.

It's not all happy-happy-joy-joy. The invasion was still a crime, in my opinion, and the perpetrators will probably escape prosecution, and that's not right. But I do appreciate Bush's willingness to listen to the message of the election, and I'm glad to see that an election can have an effect. I hope it is a real, lasting effect.

Most Relieved Man in America

"You don't have to be crazy to work here, but help?"

I didn't do so well on my October 18 predictions, which were way too pessimistic. I predicted only 12 Dem pickups in the House; they'll get at least 30 or so. And I was way off on the Senate. Of 8 contested races, I got four wrong -- RI, MO, TN, and VA, assuming Webb holds on in VA.

I Let My Fingers Do the Walking

...today, and used MoveOn.org's nifty phone number and script generator to make a few dozen calls from my home to voters in some tight House Districts around the country. The numbers and scripts were generated on the fly and after every few calls I'd get transferred into a new district. Before calling into a new district I'd check out the candidates' websites so I wasn't totally ignorant, but nobody I talked to was interested in chatting about the candidate. An enjoyable geography lesson if nothing else.

Here's where I called, in order, (with results added later on during the night as they came in):

New York 24 - Central New York - Michael Arcuri (D) is looking to replace Sherwood Boehlert (R) who is retiring. This district went for Bush in 2000 and 2004 but Arcuri had a small lead over Raymond Meier (R) going into the election. RESULT: Arcuri won 54-45%.

New York 26 - Western New York - Jack Davis (D) trying to unseat Tom Reynolds (R), the head of the House Republican Congressional campaign committee. Reynolds was hurt a bit by the Foley scandal but has recovered since then. This race was called a toss-up. (Hoo-boy, one of Davis's planks was to "Eliminate the Death Tax.") RESULT: Reynolds won 52-48%.

North Carolina 11 - Ashville and Western North Carolina - NFL-quarterback-washout-turned-politician Heath Shuler (D) hopes to unseat incumbent Charles Taylor (R). NY Times says the district is leaning toward Shuler. RESULT: Shuler won, 54-46%.

New Hampshire 2 - Rural New Hampshire - Paul Hodes (D) trying to knock off moderate Republican Charlie Bass. NY Times calls it a toss-up. RESULT: Hodes won, 53-45%.

Florida 22 - West Palm Beach, Boca Raton - Ron Klein (D) hopes to unseat Clay Shaw (R) in the land of the Buchanan Butterfly Ballot. This ticket-splitting district voted for Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004. NY Times calls it a toss-up. RESULT: Klein won, 51-47%.

Illinois 6 - Chicago western suburbs - Iraq War vet and double amputee Tammy Duckworth (D) vs. Peter Roskam (R) to see who will succeed Henry Hyde (R), one of the Clinton impeachment poobahs; the district was Bush country in 2000 and 2004. A toss-up. RESULT: Roskam won, 51-49%.

Nevada 3 - Las Vegas suburbs - US Senate staffer Tessa Hafen (D) takes on two-term incumbent Jon Porter, who is a slight favorite. RESULT: Porter won, 48-47%.

Texas 22 - Sugar Land, Houston southern suburbs - Tom DeLay's district! Democrats are running Nicholas Lampson. DeLay's name is still on the ballot -- the Republican, Shelly Sekula-Gibbs, has to run a write-in campaign -- but the district is so conservative that Lampson is only given an even chance of winning. RESULT: Lampson won, 52-42%.

Getting Out the Vote

Generally, I take Election Day off to do Get Out the Vote (GOTV) stuff. In the past, I've done door to door canvassing and always wondered if it was worthwhile, compared with other methods, such as phone banks.

According to Get out the Vote!, a study of GOTV efforts between 1998 and 2002, door-to-door yields 1 additional vote for every 14 people contacted, while phone banks average 1 additional vote for every 35 people contacted.

In 2004 I and a friend did targeted door-to-door in a semi-rural area of New Hampshire. This meant visiting a pre-determined list of identified voters, not simply going up and down a street knocking on every door. I estimate we actually talked to 8 people per hour, or four per hour per canvasser.

Four contacts per hour -- that's a pretty low contact rate, especially compared with phone. The phone canvass looks like it might be more efficient, even though the vote-per-contact yield is over twice as low.

Specifics on the Senate

Dem Pickups:
Montana: Tester
Ohio: Brown
Pennsylvania: Casey
Tennessee: Ford

Dem Holds:
New Jersey: Menendez

Republican Holds:
Virginia: Allen
Missouri: Talent
Rhode Island: Chafee

Election Prediction

Democrats need to pick up 15 House seats to gain majority. I say they'll get 12.

Democrats need to pick up 6 Senate seets to gain majority. I say they'll get 4.

Handicapping 2006 and 2008

Reader D.R. from Thousand Oaks, CA writes in to ask:

I do wonder who on the Democratic side is going to emerge as a spokesperson. We need a persuasive candidate. Who is that?

Regarding the 2008 Presidential Race, Kerry is a no-go. John Edwards fumbled the ball big time during the VP debate with Cheney and wasn't really a factor in the general. Plus he has no platform now.

I think Hillary Clinton has real potential. She's very smart and would have a great political adviser in Bill.

Also, I heard the Democratic governor of Montana, Brian Schweitzer, the other day on the Ed Schultz Radio Show and he sounded pretty good. Tiny state though.

I don't think the Democrats have a good chance to take back the Senate in 2006. They need to capture 6 seats to get a majority, and the list of Republicans up for reelection that year seems pretty safe to me (see below).

I think only two: Santorum (PA) and DeWine (OH), are vulnerable, plus Frist's (TN) seat is opening up and maybe Chaffee (RI) will switch parties. But even with those four seats going Democratic (and assuming the Democrats protect all their seats), that still means a Republican majority in the Senate.

Republicans up for Re-Election in 2006
Allen, George- (R - VA)
Burns, Conrad- (R - MT)
Chafee, Lincoln- (R - RI)
DeWine, Mike- (R - OH)
Ensign, John- (R - NV)
Hatch, Orrin- (R - UT)
Hutchison, Kay- (R - TX)
Kyl, Jon- (R - AZ)
Lott, Trent- (R - MS)
Lugar, Richard- (R - IN)
Santorum, Rick- (R - PA)
Snowe, Olympia- (R - ME)
Talent, James- (R - MO)
Thomas, Craig- (R - WY)

Republican Open Seats in 2006
Frist, Bill- (R - TN)

Democrats up for Re-Election in 2006
Akaka, Daniel- (D - HI)
Bingaman, Jeff- (D - NM)
Byrd, Robert- (D - WV)
Cantwell, Maria- (D - WA)
Carper, Thomas- (D - DE)
Clinton, Hillary- (D - NY)
Conrad, Kent- (D - ND)
Corzine, Jon- (D - NJ)
Feinstein, Dianne- (D - CA)
Kennedy, Edward- (D - MA)
Kohl, Herb- (D - WI)
Lieberman, Joseph- (D - CT)
Nelson, Bill- (D - FL)
Nelson, Ben- (D - NE)
Stabenow, Debbie- (D - MI)

Democrat Open Seats in 2006
Dayton, Mark- (D - MN)
Jeffords, James- (I - VT)*
Sarbanes, Paul- (D - MD)

*Independent, votes with the Democrats.

EDITED 14 July to break out the seats that are opening up in 2006.