Convention Review

I am enjoying the little bits of the convention that I am watching. Trying not to overdo it.

I love-love-love Michelle Obama, so I was sure to watch her speech. It was OK, but not the best showcase for her qualities, and I thought her brother's intro was way too long.

I missed Hillary's speech -- seeing too much of her in the winter and spring is what led to my cold-turkey giving-up of the blogosphere except for Tyler Cowen.

Did see Bill C and Joe B last night. I like Joe B as a speaker very much and his mother is great. Will probably check out Obama at the Stade Fasciste football stadium tonight as well.

Our Next President

Will be Hillary Rodham Clinton. And I have to agree with right-wing radio talk show host John Gibson that she will be the "bombingest president in U.S. history." Look for a 100-mile "buffer zone" into Mexico in addition to periodic cruise missile attacks on targets in the interiors of various African and Asian nations.

Earlier this year when the Baltimore Orioles were doing great, I knew they were going to fade but I didn't say so and didn't write it down so it's just as if I never made that prediction (not that it was a particularly astute one). So this is just to get my money down on the table now for 2008.

UK bookmaker William Hill is currently offering 4-1 odds on Hillary as our next president. She's the favorite right now. So I guess this prediction is pretty ho-hum as well.

Cheeze Blog: Venturing a tiny way out on a very large limb since 2005.

Handicapping 2006 and 2008

Reader D.R. from Thousand Oaks, CA writes in to ask:

I do wonder who on the Democratic side is going to emerge as a spokesperson. We need a persuasive candidate. Who is that?

Regarding the 2008 Presidential Race, Kerry is a no-go. John Edwards fumbled the ball big time during the VP debate with Cheney and wasn't really a factor in the general. Plus he has no platform now.

I think Hillary Clinton has real potential. She's very smart and would have a great political adviser in Bill.

Also, I heard the Democratic governor of Montana, Brian Schweitzer, the other day on the Ed Schultz Radio Show and he sounded pretty good. Tiny state though.

I don't think the Democrats have a good chance to take back the Senate in 2006. They need to capture 6 seats to get a majority, and the list of Republicans up for reelection that year seems pretty safe to me (see below).

I think only two: Santorum (PA) and DeWine (OH), are vulnerable, plus Frist's (TN) seat is opening up and maybe Chaffee (RI) will switch parties. But even with those four seats going Democratic (and assuming the Democrats protect all their seats), that still means a Republican majority in the Senate.

Republicans up for Re-Election in 2006
Allen, George- (R - VA)
Burns, Conrad- (R - MT)
Chafee, Lincoln- (R - RI)
DeWine, Mike- (R - OH)
Ensign, John- (R - NV)
Hatch, Orrin- (R - UT)
Hutchison, Kay- (R - TX)
Kyl, Jon- (R - AZ)
Lott, Trent- (R - MS)
Lugar, Richard- (R - IN)
Santorum, Rick- (R - PA)
Snowe, Olympia- (R - ME)
Talent, James- (R - MO)
Thomas, Craig- (R - WY)

Republican Open Seats in 2006
Frist, Bill- (R - TN)

Democrats up for Re-Election in 2006
Akaka, Daniel- (D - HI)
Bingaman, Jeff- (D - NM)
Byrd, Robert- (D - WV)
Cantwell, Maria- (D - WA)
Carper, Thomas- (D - DE)
Clinton, Hillary- (D - NY)
Conrad, Kent- (D - ND)
Corzine, Jon- (D - NJ)
Feinstein, Dianne- (D - CA)
Kennedy, Edward- (D - MA)
Kohl, Herb- (D - WI)
Lieberman, Joseph- (D - CT)
Nelson, Bill- (D - FL)
Nelson, Ben- (D - NE)
Stabenow, Debbie- (D - MI)

Democrat Open Seats in 2006
Dayton, Mark- (D - MN)
Jeffords, James- (I - VT)*
Sarbanes, Paul- (D - MD)

*Independent, votes with the Democrats.

EDITED 14 July to break out the seats that are opening up in 2006.