Wednesday, July 13, 2005

Handicapping 2006 and 2008

Reader D.R. from Thousand Oaks, CA writes in to ask:
I do wonder who on the Democratic side is going to emerge as a spokesperson. We need a persuasive candidate. Who is that?
Regarding the 2008 Presidential Race, Kerry is a no-go. John Edwards fumbled the ball big time during the VP debate with Cheney and wasn't really a factor in the general. Plus he has no platform now.

I think Hillary Clinton has real potential. She's very smart and would have a great political adviser in Bill.

Also, I heard the Democratic governor of Montana, Brian Schweitzer, the other day on the Ed Schultz Radio Show and he sounded pretty good. Tiny state though.

I don't think the Democrats have a good chance to take back the Senate in 2006. They need to capture 6 seats to get a majority, and the list of Republicans up for reelection that year seems pretty safe to me (see below).

I think only two: Santorum (PA) and DeWine (OH), are vulnerable, plus Frist's (TN) seat is opening up and maybe Chaffee (RI) will switch parties. But even with those four seats going Democratic (and assuming the Democrats protect all their seats), that still means a Republican majority in the Senate.

Republicans up for Re-Election in 2006
Allen, George- (R - VA)
Burns, Conrad- (R - MT)
Chafee, Lincoln- (R - RI)
DeWine, Mike- (R - OH)
Ensign, John- (R - NV)
Hatch, Orrin- (R - UT)
Hutchison, Kay- (R - TX)
Kyl, Jon- (R - AZ)
Lott, Trent- (R - MS)
Lugar, Richard- (R - IN)
Santorum, Rick- (R - PA)
Snowe, Olympia- (R - ME)
Talent, James- (R - MO)
Thomas, Craig- (R - WY)

Republican Open Seats in 2006
Frist, Bill- (R - TN)

Democrats up for Re-Election in 2006
Akaka, Daniel- (D - HI)
Bingaman, Jeff- (D - NM)
Byrd, Robert- (D - WV)
Cantwell, Maria- (D - WA)
Carper, Thomas- (D - DE)
Clinton, Hillary- (D - NY)
Conrad, Kent- (D - ND)
Corzine, Jon- (D - NJ)
Feinstein, Dianne- (D - CA)
Kennedy, Edward- (D - MA)
Kohl, Herb- (D - WI)
Lieberman, Joseph- (D - CT)
Nelson, Bill- (D - FL)
Nelson, Ben- (D - NE)
Stabenow, Debbie- (D - MI)

Democrat Open Seats in 2006
Dayton, Mark- (D - MN)
Jeffords, James- (I - VT)*
Sarbanes, Paul- (D - MD)

*Independent, votes with the Democrats.

EDITED 14 July to break out the seats that are opening up in 2006.

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